Adding a Superstar, Part Two Steve Nash

Steve Nash is the best point guard and the best play-maker in the league, and the Grizzlies are in bad need of a dominant point guard and play-maker. Not only would Nash make every Grizzly a better player, but he'd be an unstoppable threat in the paint and from the three point line.

Nash's play making ability would transform the Grizzlies' fast break experiment into a lethal offense. Imagine alley-oops to Rudy Gay and Hakim Warrick, drive and dishes to Mike Miller for three, and low post feeds to a seven foot Spaniard who can finish with both hands.

There are two problems with adding Nash. First, he doesn't help the Grizzlies' interior defense or rebounding.

Second, the Grizzlies minus Nash aren't as good as the Suns minus Nash. Even during the season before Nash arrived, the Suns finished with a better record (29 wins) than this year's Grizzlies (22 wins). Nash would instantly put the Grizzlies back into the playoffs, and they'd certainly break their playoff losing streak, but they'd still lose to this year's Suns, so they wouldn't win the championship.

Adding a Superstar, Part One: Dirk Nowitzki

The first player that would have the biggest impact on the Grizzlies is also the biggest dud of the 2007 playoffs: Dirk Nowitzki. Dirk would instantly make the Grizzlies a top five team. Combined with Gasol's back to the basket game, and Miller's three point-shooting, Dirk would give the Grizzlies an unguardable offense.

Additionally, Dirk would add much needed rebounding. Though he panders to his outside game, he still manages to rebound the ball extremely well.

He also doesn't need a strong play-making presence to be good. His best seasons have been with Jason Terry, not Steve Nash, so Dirk could dominate for the Grizzlies even though Damon Stoudemire and Chucky Atkins aren't All Star play makers.

Anyone who saw this year's playoffs knows that Dirk wouldn't lead the Grizzlies to a championship. Still, Dirk would easily get them to the playoffs, and out of the first round. With Gasol in the post, the Grizzlies might even have a better shot at beating the Warriors (though the Mavs still probably match up better against the Suns, Spurs, and Pistons).

The probably wouldn't have won 67 games, but with Dirk, the Grizzlies would have been a top team.

Adding a Superstar: Intro

I've posted many times that the Grizzlies need a superstar to get them to the next level. In the next 5 posts, look at some of the superstars and how they'd affect the Grizzlies if they joined last year's squad.

For the purposes of this list, I won't look at players from all of the best teams, only individual's I think would make the biggest impact. For instance, Chauncey Billups, the best player on the Pistons, would definitely make the Grizzlies a much better team. However, he's not a superstar; the Pistons rely on his ability to lead a strong group of players who have all been All Stars and different times in their careers.

Similarly, Baron Davis wouldn't impact the Grizzlies in the same way he's impacted Golden State because of Golden State's style of play, and Jason Kidd's age reduces his impact on the young Grizzlies' team.

In fact, of the five I'll examine, only one player would solidify the Grizzlies at the top of the league, though each of the five would help the Grizzlies compete with the top teams.

I had a Dream

This morning I had to wake up at 6:15 for an early meeting at work. As a result, of the change in my sleeping schedule, I remembered my dream. It involved a trade:

To the Heat
Mike Miller
Dahntay Jones

To the Grizzlies
Shaquille O'Neal

First the obvious:

1. The salaries don't match up.
   
2. The Heat would never trade a sports legend for someone with hair that bad, even if he's a University of Florida legend. Even if you throw in Dahntay Jones.
3. The Grizzlies are better off without the aging superstar and his $60 million contract. (Still, the thought of Shaq next to Gasol is intriguing, and they'd be hard pressed to say no. Shaq has proved doubters wrong in the past and therefore deserves the benefit of the doubt.)

Now the less obvious, but more troubling:

Shaq would never agree to play in Memphis.

Shaq, and other veteran superstars don't want to play for the worst team in the league, even if it has a bright future, especially if the worst team calls Memphis its home. A Veteran superstar will only take a chance with a bad team (ie The Knicks) if it affords them the opportunity to play in a large market (ie New York).

A younger superstar may take a chance in Memphis if another team can't match the Grizzlies' offer. The chances that a more desirable market can't outbid the Grizzlies are slim.

A second tier (or lower) player would be happy to be overpaid in Memphis. The Grizzlies have a great group of these type of players most of whom aren't overpaid (yet).

So how do the Grizzlies obtain a superstar player when they're an undesirable market losing one of their biggest attractions in Jerry West?

There are three options:

1. The Number 1 Draft Pick
2. The Number 2 Draft Pick
3. Trades
   

All three options are tough to pull off, but let's hope the Jerry West's last move is more Hubie Brown than Brian Cardinal.

Winning the Lottery

So much of the Grizzlies' fortunes depend on their ping pong ball being drawn on May 22. Only fans' good luck charms can help the Grizzlies' in their goal.

Greg Oden and Kevin Durant have the potential to make the impact that Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, and and Dwayne Wade have made on their teams. The Grizzlies would instantly change from the worst team in the league to a top ten team. They already have a solid base of players. With a superstar, they could contend with the best if not compete for a championship.

However, chances are better than 50% that the Grizzlies won't get either player. They only have a 46.5% chance of getting either the first or second pick. In fact, few teams with the worst record in the league have actually ever received the number one pick.

So what should the Grizzlies do if they don't get the pick?

They are almost certain of another lottery pick next year if they don't get a top pick. Therefore, they should trade Gasol. His trade value is peaking, and he can't lead them to further than the first round without significant help. The Grizzlies should trade him for young talent with potential and draft picks. That will give them a chance to get a superstar in another draft lottery. Additionally, it will free up cap space to sign a legitimate superstar. Perhaps the Bulls will be ready to gamble on Gasol once the Pistons sweep them out of the playoffs.

Unfortunately, even if they free the cap space, convincing a Lebron-James-caliber-player to sign with Memphis may be less likely than the winning the NBA draft lottery...

Calkins is Wrong

Geoff Calkins is the sports editor for the Memphis Commercial Appeal. I love reading his articles, and nearly always agree with him. He isn't afraid to contradict conventional thinking or upset his subjects. While he sometimes tries to be too clever in his style, he also plays the tuba (a characteristic he shares with this writer).

However, recently Calkins was wrong. Two times. In one week.

He wrote two columns where he argued that hiring Larry Brown is a good idea. In Calkin's defense, he admits that many will challenge this opinion. However, the problem with Calkins' editorial is that hiring Brown is a terrible idea.

Yes, Brown is a great coach. You can't argue against his record.

You also can't defend Brown's character. Even Calkins admits (and CA writer Ron Higgens explains further) that Brown is famous for interviewing for new teams while coaching their competitors. While that's fine for most professions, when you're making $5 million a year and supposedly leading a team, that's poor sportsmanship.

If we were looking for poor sportsmanship, we'd have kept Jason Williams and Bonzi Wells.

However, there's a bigger reason not to go for Brown. It's time to look beyond veterans past their prime. Not only does Brown favor those veterans, but Brown is himself a veteran past his prime.

Hubie Brown, Jerry West, and Larry Brown are legends and hall of famers. Eddie Jones, Bobby Jackson, Jason Williams, and Bonzi Wells are savvy veterans with boatloads of playoff experience. It's time for the Grizzlies to move on.

It's time for us to be excited about young talent who make their name taking the Grizzlies deep into the playoffs, not players or coaches who made their names before Greg Oden could grow a beard.

Next year will be different

The only certainty about next year's Grizzlies is that the status quo is unacceptable.

Here's what we know will be different:

Jerry West will be gone. He'll help Michael Heisley decide who will be taking basketball decisions next year, who will be coach, and who will be drafted. However, he's essentially a lame duck.

Michael Heisley will take a more active role in the franchise. Heisley says he will take the team 'off the market' in a month. However, he's not actually going to take it off the market. He's still working to sell the team, and every decision he makes will be influenced by that goal. However, he realised during this disaster of a year that you can't run a team by freezing all activity. The best way to market a team is to offer the best product, and you have to be active to do so.

Player acquisition will focus on young talents and veteran superstars. The strategy since Jerry West took over has been to get old players past their primes who know how to win. These players can get you to the playoffs, but they're not exciting or talented enough to get the support of the fans or win a playoff game.

With this change in strategy, Damon Stoudemire, Chucky Atkins, and Brian Cardinal will likely be shipped out of town. Dantay Jones and Stromile Swift may be around, but they will likely be gone after this season if they make it to the February trade deadline.

The biggest change that could affect the Grizzlies is the draft. The Grizzlies have the chance to pick up a superstar that could affect the team the way Carmelo and Lebron have changed the Nuggets and Cavs. However, this outcome is not guaranteed. The Grizzlies' future is dependant on chance. The Grizzlies will certainly get someone who can impact the team. However, they may only get another strong contributor of which they already have too many.