This Year's Team is Different

This year's team looks much different from last year's. Analysts predicted the Grizzlies would tank this year because of the loss of Battier and Gasol. I thought these predictions were ridiculous. The Grizzlies had promising young rookie Rudy Gay and a healthy Stoudemire. Lorenzen Wright's play had been bad. Surely, Swift could replace him. Bobby Jackson was frequently injured and didn't play much anyway.

I was wrong. Several changes transformed the Grizzlies from a first round loser to the worst team in the league.

1. The Grizzlies had no All Star. Although Gasol continued to produce All Star numbers, he missed 21 games this season. That absence was enough to prevent another All Star appearance, and establish a losing mentality.

2. The veterans didn't age well. Stoudemire has slowly but surely regained some form, but it took a month or two, and he's not as good as he was. Eddie Jones was injured, and looked like he didn't care. Stromile has been consistently inconsistent.

3. The young players weren't able to contribute immediately. Rudy Gay has been improving throughout the year, but my enthusiasm clouded my optimism. Gay wasn't destined to be an All Star his rookie year or even Rookie of the year. Kyle Lowry could have helped at point guard but was hampered by injury. Lawrence Roberts and Alexander Johnson have a lot of energy and can be solid role players, but they don't possess the experience or the talent to win ball games alone.

4. Mike Fratello lost the support of his players. Once the slide began, Fratello wasn't able to adapt his style to fit his players. He wouldn't accept the fact that the Grizzlies weren't a playoff team so he continued to coach them like they were. As I've written before, his style may have masked the fact that the Grizzlies weren't a playoff team to begin with. The reason they made the playoffs last year is Fratello slowed the tempo to the point that they had a chance to win games. (Don't mistake this for good defense.) Last year, they had just enough talent to win those games. This year, they're just short of that talent, and when the tempo speeds up, only the margin of victory increases.

5. This may be the most significant difference between last year's squad and this years: The ownership changed it's strategy. First, Michael Heisley decided that the Grizzlies couldn't be successful as a business by investing significant money in basketball costs. Second, he contributed to a public and poorly executed attempt at selling the team to Brian Davis and Dream Team Star Christian Laettner. This not only served as a distraction to fans, players, and other personnel, but also prevented Jerry West from taking risks that could have turned the team around. This strategy may help the Grizzlies in the long term, but it certainly hurt them this season.

6. Players have been asked to perform above their current abilities. Mike Miller, Chucky Atkins, and Hakim Warrick have all had career years. Resigning Atkins seemed like an afterthought last summer. I was skeptical of his ability to perform for more than 10-15 minutes per game. I was wrong. Atkins has proved me and probably others wrong. He's a solid contributor. However, he's still not a star point guard, and he's been asked to be that this season. In order for the Grizzlies to make up for the loss of Gasol they needed other players to step up and lead. Miller, though not the one-dimensional player he was earlier in the season, is not quite a star. Warrick has impressive offensive skills but gets beat up on defense. He shares Gasol's weaknesses: he's not a strong rebounder or help defender.

These characteristics that distinguish this year's team from last year's have resulted in strikingly different results. Instead of finishing with one of the best records in the league, the Grizzlies have the worst. Hopefully, this will allow the Grizzlies to make the necessary changes in the offseason that will make next year's team look strikingly different from this year's.

Last Year's Team Was Different

Just one year has resulted in significant changes in the performance of the Grizzlies. The record of this year's Grizzlies team is remarkably different from last year's team. With a high probability of a high draft pick in a deep draft, trade demands from the franchise player, a new coach, and possible changes in the front office, next year holds the potential for another big change.

In this article, the first of three, I'll remember last season, in hopes that it will shed some light on the huge difference in the results the Grizzlies have produced.

Here are some of the characteristics that distinguish last year's team from this year's. What's interesting is that they aren't dramatic.

1. Last year's team had three veterans that made significant contributions.

Shane Battier
Bobby Jackson
Lorenzen Wright

None of these veterans were flashy. Two of them were past their primes. None of them made statistical contributions that stand out among the 5th, 6th, or 7th men of the league. However, each of them provides intangibles that aren't quantifiable and contributed significantly, though not exclusively, to the difference between last year's playoff team and this year's league-worst squad.

2. Only one coach led the team. Mike Fratello conducted his first training camp. In the previous season he'd inherited a team from Hubie Brown. Last year's team benefited from consistency throughout the year from one coach.

3. The Grizzlies had their first All Star. Previously Shareef Abdur-Rahim put up All Star numbers. However, coaches and fans consider team performance when they select All Stars, and none of Abdur-Rahim's teams won more than 23 games. Pau Gasol was the best player on a Grizzlies team destined for its third straight appearance, and improved upon numbers that in the previous two seasons were borderline All Star numbers.

These characteristics don't seem like the missing pieces that would turn the worst team in the league into a playoff team, and they aren't the only variables that affected the Grizzlies' decline. However, they had a significant impact on the Grizzlies' appearance in the 2006 playoffs.

'Rookie' Mistakes Doom Grizzlies

Living in the Bay Area, I don't get to see many Grizzlies games live. So far this season, the only Grizzlies game I've attended was Fratello's last, a disappointing loss to the Bucks during the holidays.

This game was also disappointing, but in a different way. Whereas during the Bucks game, the Grizzlies looked like they didn't give a rat's ass about winning basketball games, during this overtime loss, with the exception of Mike Miller, they looked like they were too inexperienced to pull out a victory. (Okay, Swift still looked like he didn't care.)

Rudy Gay had six turnovers and missed a fast break three pointer that he should have taken to the basket. However, I liked his aggressive play, and I don't fault him for missing the 3. At this point in the season, it's better for Rudy learn on the floor than disappear from games as he was apt to do earlier in the season.

Kinsey looked like a 12th man and Junior Harrington looked like somebody brought up from the D-League on a 10 game contract. I have no idea why Chucky Atkins and Dantay Jones didn't play instead of these two inexperienced guards. They could have contributed solid minutes, and the Commercial Appeal and CNNSI don't offer an explanation of their absence.

Atkins could have spelled Stoudemire as well. Damon looked terrible. He only turned the ball over 3 times according to the box score, but it seemed like more than that, probably because of his 5-13 shooting.

Finally, Pau Gasol was the biggest disappointment. He had 6 turnovers, as many as the rookie Gay. Most turnovers occurred when Gasol pulled the ball across the lane where three Warriors were swiping at it. After five years, you'd think Gasol would've learned to take care of the ball in the post. Even worse, Gasol missed two free throws that would've tied the game (after Warrick made two in virtually the same situation).

If Gasol was auditioning for another team before, he certainly isn't now. Isn't he the franchise player who demanded to be traded because the Grizzlies haven't put him in a situation to win games? He couldn't have asked for a better position: down by two with the opportunity to tie the game. Instead, he provided evidence that he's not the clutch, franchise player that deserves a maximum contract.

On a brighter note, (and there were other bright notes: Rudy Gay's aggressiveness and Hakim Warrick's consistency) Mike Miller was unconscious. The Warriors fans around me were disgusted whenever he was left open, and he made them pay. He has been a consistent and effective offensive weapon the entire season, and he would be extremely valuable on a winning team. The last of the Grizzlies' 'rookie' mistakes was not finding him in the last possessions of the game. You could see recognition of that mistake all over Miller's face.

The highlight of the game for me was the Warriors fan who found my friend, Evan and I in the upper bowl. He had to leave to catch a flight so he gave us his tickets on the 14th row at halftime. Thanks to that guy, and thanks to him for not noticing my Gasol jersey.

ByeBye Tsakalidis

The Grizzlies traded Jake Tsakalidis for Scott Padgett.

Besides a brief stint at the end of last season where Tsakalidis strung together several double-double performances, Jake has been a disappointment. He was supposed to be the big body that would provide rebounding, defensive, and muscle next to Gasol. His biggest contribution this season is that his 3 million dollar contract expires this season.

Padgett won't make much of a contribution either. He's a poor man's Brian Cardinal. My friend, Curt's reaction highlights the impact Padgett will make. When Curt learned that Padgett was becoming a Grizzly, he was excited...until my friend Jordan pointed out that Scott Padgett and Scott Pollard aren't the same player.

I can only hope Padgett's contract also comes off the books this year...

Swift and Jones for Magloire?

The Commercial Appeal is reporting that the Grizzlies may trade Swift and Jones to Portland for Jamaal Magloire's expiring contract.

It's tough to get excited about a trade that's primary benefit for the Grizzlies is long-term financial flexibility. Though Swift hasn't lived up to expectations, he's a solid veteran who can provide quality minutes off the bench. Magloire is similar, but it's hard to imagine he'd be a Grizzly after the season, if that long. Losing Swift would be similar to losing Bobby Jackson and Lorenzen Wright, veteran roles players who know how to help their team win.

Trading for Magloire gives the Grizzlies about six million more this summer than they'd have if they kept Swift. (Dantay Jones' contract expires this season like Magloire's.) This extra cash, along with the cash from Eddie Jones' and Jake Tsakaleidis' contracts could potentially help the Grizzlies lure a star player. However, as I've written before, there aren't any big name free agents worth pursuing this summer.

A few names that aren't that list (Vince Carter for example) may become available if they opt out of their contracts, but it's hard to imagine a player like Carter would opt out of his contract to come to Memphis and play with a bunch of rookies and sophomores. Trading Swift is part of a strategy that sets the Grizzlies a few years away from playoff contention.

Swift is certainly replaceable, but the only 'big' players the Grizz will have signed through 08 are Gasol, Johnson, Warrick, and Cardinal. (Hopefully they can re-sign Lawrence Roberts.) They'll have to get additional big men somehow, and talented big men are rare and aren't cheap.

This trade puts additional pressure on the Grizz to get the #1 pick, and select Greg Oden.

Another downside of this trade is that the Grizzlies lose Dantay Jones, who's shaping up to be a nice player, if not a starter. That said, Jones may be on his way out regardless. He's an unrestricted free agent, and the Grizzlies would be smart to take advantage of his value if they don't plan on/can't re-sign him. In fact, if he isn't traded with Swift, Jones could be a sweetener in the Gasol trade. After all, the Bulls will need a shooting guard to replace Ben Gordon.

Thoughts on the Gasol Rumors

It seems that there are a few possibilities floating around:

1. Trade Gasol to Portland for Aldridge, Magloire, and Rodriguez. I know little about Aldridge or Rodriguez, or their potential. There stats aren't impressive, but they're both rookies who could develop and don't accompany a large investment.

I've lobbied to trade for Magloire since he played in New Orleans with Baron Davis (who I also thought we should have acquired). However, I wanted him when we needed a strong presence next to Gasol. Now, we'd only take on the flexibility that his expiring contract would provide. While I'm not opposed to that strategy, it doesn't offer much short-term hope given the weak up coming free agent class.

To take this deal, I'd want Portland's #1 pick and a strong likelihood that it would be one or two, which would get us much closer to making a huge jump with the draft.

2. Trade Gasol to Boston for Al Jefferson, Theo Ratliff, and the #1 pick. This one is similar to the Portland trade, and I'd take it on draft day if Boston's pick is low enough. Jefferson, though not established, has demonstrated quality play. Ratliff is Boston's version of Magloire, and Durant and Oden in Memphis is more likely with Boston's pick. Neither player is enticing enough especially given the likelihood that Gasol will decrease Boston's chances of a top pick. If the pick is one or two, I'd even throw in Will Conroy.

3. Trade Gasol to Chicago for Ben Gordon, Deng, New York's Draft pick, and PJ Brown. I like this trade. Gordon and Deng have a huge upside. The Knicks' pick, while not as good as Boston's will still be a lottery pick in a deep draft. I'd do the trade without Brown and would consider it without Deng (and with Brown) though I'd prefer to add a Grizzly and get both.

I've heard Warrick rumored as that additional player, but I'd hesitate to give him up. Instead, I'd give up a veteran like Stoudemire, who'd be nice backing up Hinrich in the playoffs. Acquiring Gordon makes Miller expendable. Perhaps he could be included in a three-team deal.

4. Gasol remains a Grizzly. None of these trades ensures that the Grizzlies get a superstar/franchise player in return, and I'm hesitant to give up one superstar for many less-talented players. However, as long as these deals include draft lottery picks, they give the Grizzlies an opportunity to take further advantage of this year's draft. Also, I like the financial flexibility the Grizzlies get, and I think they have solid young players in Gay and Warrick who could develop into stars.

That said, I'm happy to keep Gasol. His play, particularly his rebounding, has been inspired since these rumors surfaced. He's a star, and past experience suggests that it's difficult to get the better end (for the short term) of a trade when sending a star packing. Trading Gasol will most definitely mean no playoffs next year (with or without Durant and Oden) whereas keeping Gasol (and acquiring a player like Durant or Oden) could mean the Grizzlies' absence from the playoffs only lasts one season.

Trading Charles Barkley made the 76ers bad enough to get Allen Iverson, but they had to endure Shawn Bradley first.

I'm comfortable with the trades above with low draft picks because they give us the opportunity to get Bradley and Iverson in this years draft, but I'm also happy West has not been quick to act. I trust he'll ensure that even if we're on the wrong side of an Allstar trade, we'll still give ourselves a jump start on rebuilding.

Grizz Sign Will Conroy

The Grizz followed the buyout of Eddie Jones' contract by signing Will Conroy. I know nothing of Conroy, but I wonder why management would sign a player to share time with Stoudemire and Atkins.

It seems like those two veterans are contributing solid enough minutes that the team wouldn't need to take on another player who doesn't look to be around for long