A Memphis Grizzlies Fan Blog.
Throughout this season, I'll post my thoughts about Memphis Grizzlies games, players, and news I read from around the web.
There's no question that there is a huge risk involved when you trade for a player like Zach Randolph. However, when what you're gambling with is Darko Milicic, Quentin Richardson, and the potential to sign David Lee or Paul Milsap, you have to roll the dice.
Darko and Quentin are terrible. They bring almost no value to the Grizzlies on the court.
Darko's main benefit was unintentional comedy, and Randolph may very well exceed Darko in this regard.
Lee and Milsap are one hit wonders. They may have great years next year, but there's also a chance last season was an outlier for each.
David Lee has averaged more than 11 points per game exactly one of his 4 seasons playing for a terrible Knicks team, and his best season was in a system that made Shawn Marion look like Oscar Robertson.
Similarly, Milsap scored more than 8 points (13.5) in one of his three seasons.
There's a possibility Randolph won't be the answer either, but his resume is certainly better than those guys'. (By the way, all three players were about equal last year as measured by John Hollinger's PER.)
What's the worst he can do? Make the Grizzlies worse?
In the least, he should give the Grizzlies guards some room to operate on offense.
So I'm not mad the Grizzlies made the deal. even if they missed out on the "David Lee Sweepstakes". This is the type of gamble the Grizzlies have to make. Get something for nothing.
Zach Randolph is a knucklehead, and certainly not my first choice for the Grizzlies' starting power forward.
However, there's a strong case for acquiring him IF the Grizzlies don't have to give up any basketball assets to do so.
(A basketball asset is a future first round draft pick or anyone Hakim Warrick or better. Anyone from Darrell Arthur though Marko Jarik is not considered a basketball asset.)
1. Zach Randolph has scored 20 points and averaged 10 rebounds in 6 of the past 6 seasons.
That's a serious upgrade over the Grizzlies current options at power forward. The Grizzlies would have 3 30-point options on the team.
2. Most other available power forwards haven't demonstrated the same level of individual success or haven't done so for more than a season. Going with Paul Milsap or David Lee may not carry the same character risks as going with Randolph, but the risk that those players aren't able to replicate their recent basketball sucess is higher.
Players like Lee and Milsap haven't demonstrated individual success consistently for more than a season or in a variety of different team scenarios. Other candidates (like Jason Thompson?!?!) haven't demonstrated near Randolph-like success for one season.
3. The best power forwards aren't exactly knocking down the door to get into Memphis.
If you check out Chris Herrington's excellent list of available power forwards, you might notice that there are several options that are significantly better than Zach Randolph. The chance that the Grizzlies will be able to land any of them is small. They've been trying, without success, for over a year. (Attempts at Beasley, Amare, and Randolph have all been reported.)
The Grizzlies can't afford to wait around if the opportunity to acquire Randolph without giving up a basketball asset arrives. The Grizzlies won't be able to compete in the free agent market when other teams have cap room to pursue players like Chris Bosh and Amare.
4. Trades for players with Randolph's ability or better will require the Grizzlies to give up basketball assets. Therefore, the net gain may not be as great even if the Grizzlies were able to land a player significantly better than Randolph.
Would you rather have a 100 inch TV for 5 grand or a 60 inch TV for 50 bucks?
(Still, there are players I'd rather have than Randolph.)
5. My biggest concern is that Randolph has not demonstrated success in the playoffs. However, looking through Herrington's list, most of the other players either haven't demonstrated much individual success, haven't demonstrated much team success, or, by my calculation, are a long shot to acquire.
Therefore, you won't hear me complain if the Grizzlies pull the trigger on a Randolph deal without giving up a basketball asset. He's not a perfect fit. There are significant risks involved, and it may not work out.
But this is exactly the type of risk-taking the Grizzlies have to go for to improve the team.
Also, Chris Vernon reports that the Clippers turned down a trade of Marko Jaric and Greg Buckner for Zach Randolph.
Though Randolph is a cancer and a knucklehead this is exactly the type of deal the Grizzlies need to make. They give up nothing except money to improve the team on the floor.
The only deals I don't understand are #2 and Gay for Amare, and #2 for Beasley. How do you turn those deals down? Don't those deals make the team significantly better?
I also question turning down the #5, Etan Thomas, and Mike James for the Grizzlies later picks.
I can only assume these rumors don't tell the whole story. I mean, HOW DO YOU TURN DOWN #2 AND GAY FOR AMARE?!?!?!
Why is it that the Grizzlies have the 2nd best pick in the draft, but it seems like they're in the worst position of any team?
Why does it seem like other teams are making moves while the Grizzlies are falling behind?
Why can't the Grizzlies turn Milicic's expiring contract into something better than Quentin Richardson?
These are questions that hopefully will be answered on Thursday night. Hopefully, the answer will be that the Grizzlies have been biding their time until the Clippers to buckle under the pressure of the Grizzlies' offer for Blake Griffin.
As an aside, Chris Herrington has it right on the proposed deals with Minnesota. Except the part where he's willing to take Love and #18 for #2.
