Calkins is Wrong

Geoff Calkins is the sports editor for the Memphis Commercial Appeal. I love reading his articles, and nearly always agree with him. He isn't afraid to contradict conventional thinking or upset his subjects. While he sometimes tries to be too clever in his style, he also plays the tuba (a characteristic he shares with this writer).

However, recently Calkins was wrong. Two times. In one week.

He wrote two columns where he argued that hiring Larry Brown is a good idea. In Calkin's defense, he admits that many will challenge this opinion. However, the problem with Calkins' editorial is that hiring Brown is a terrible idea.

Yes, Brown is a great coach. You can't argue against his record.

You also can't defend Brown's character. Even Calkins admits (and CA writer Ron Higgens explains further) that Brown is famous for interviewing for new teams while coaching their competitors. While that's fine for most professions, when you're making $5 million a year and supposedly leading a team, that's poor sportsmanship.

If we were looking for poor sportsmanship, we'd have kept Jason Williams and Bonzi Wells.

However, there's a bigger reason not to go for Brown. It's time to look beyond veterans past their prime. Not only does Brown favor those veterans, but Brown is himself a veteran past his prime.

Hubie Brown, Jerry West, and Larry Brown are legends and hall of famers. Eddie Jones, Bobby Jackson, Jason Williams, and Bonzi Wells are savvy veterans with boatloads of playoff experience. It's time for the Grizzlies to move on.

It's time for us to be excited about young talent who make their name taking the Grizzlies deep into the playoffs, not players or coaches who made their names before Greg Oden could grow a beard.

Next year will be different

The only certainty about next year's Grizzlies is that the status quo is unacceptable.

Here's what we know will be different:

Jerry West will be gone. He'll help Michael Heisley decide who will be taking basketball decisions next year, who will be coach, and who will be drafted. However, he's essentially a lame duck.

Michael Heisley will take a more active role in the franchise. Heisley says he will take the team 'off the market' in a month. However, he's not actually going to take it off the market. He's still working to sell the team, and every decision he makes will be influenced by that goal. However, he realised during this disaster of a year that you can't run a team by freezing all activity. The best way to market a team is to offer the best product, and you have to be active to do so.

Player acquisition will focus on young talents and veteran superstars. The strategy since Jerry West took over has been to get old players past their primes who know how to win. These players can get you to the playoffs, but they're not exciting or talented enough to get the support of the fans or win a playoff game.

With this change in strategy, Damon Stoudemire, Chucky Atkins, and Brian Cardinal will likely be shipped out of town. Dantay Jones and Stromile Swift may be around, but they will likely be gone after this season if they make it to the February trade deadline.

The biggest change that could affect the Grizzlies is the draft. The Grizzlies have the chance to pick up a superstar that could affect the team the way Carmelo and Lebron have changed the Nuggets and Cavs. However, this outcome is not guaranteed. The Grizzlies' future is dependant on chance. The Grizzlies will certainly get someone who can impact the team. However, they may only get another strong contributor of which they already have too many.

This Year's Team is Different

This year's team looks much different from last year's. Analysts predicted the Grizzlies would tank this year because of the loss of Battier and Gasol. I thought these predictions were ridiculous. The Grizzlies had promising young rookie Rudy Gay and a healthy Stoudemire. Lorenzen Wright's play had been bad. Surely, Swift could replace him. Bobby Jackson was frequently injured and didn't play much anyway.

I was wrong. Several changes transformed the Grizzlies from a first round loser to the worst team in the league.

1. The Grizzlies had no All Star. Although Gasol continued to produce All Star numbers, he missed 21 games this season. That absence was enough to prevent another All Star appearance, and establish a losing mentality.

2. The veterans didn't age well. Stoudemire has slowly but surely regained some form, but it took a month or two, and he's not as good as he was. Eddie Jones was injured, and looked like he didn't care. Stromile has been consistently inconsistent.

3. The young players weren't able to contribute immediately. Rudy Gay has been improving throughout the year, but my enthusiasm clouded my optimism. Gay wasn't destined to be an All Star his rookie year or even Rookie of the year. Kyle Lowry could have helped at point guard but was hampered by injury. Lawrence Roberts and Alexander Johnson have a lot of energy and can be solid role players, but they don't possess the experience or the talent to win ball games alone.

4. Mike Fratello lost the support of his players. Once the slide began, Fratello wasn't able to adapt his style to fit his players. He wouldn't accept the fact that the Grizzlies weren't a playoff team so he continued to coach them like they were. As I've written before, his style may have masked the fact that the Grizzlies weren't a playoff team to begin with. The reason they made the playoffs last year is Fratello slowed the tempo to the point that they had a chance to win games. (Don't mistake this for good defense.) Last year, they had just enough talent to win those games. This year, they're just short of that talent, and when the tempo speeds up, only the margin of victory increases.

5. This may be the most significant difference between last year's squad and this years: The ownership changed it's strategy. First, Michael Heisley decided that the Grizzlies couldn't be successful as a business by investing significant money in basketball costs. Second, he contributed to a public and poorly executed attempt at selling the team to Brian Davis and Dream Team Star Christian Laettner. This not only served as a distraction to fans, players, and other personnel, but also prevented Jerry West from taking risks that could have turned the team around. This strategy may help the Grizzlies in the long term, but it certainly hurt them this season.

6. Players have been asked to perform above their current abilities. Mike Miller, Chucky Atkins, and Hakim Warrick have all had career years. Resigning Atkins seemed like an afterthought last summer. I was skeptical of his ability to perform for more than 10-15 minutes per game. I was wrong. Atkins has proved me and probably others wrong. He's a solid contributor. However, he's still not a star point guard, and he's been asked to be that this season. In order for the Grizzlies to make up for the loss of Gasol they needed other players to step up and lead. Miller, though not the one-dimensional player he was earlier in the season, is not quite a star. Warrick has impressive offensive skills but gets beat up on defense. He shares Gasol's weaknesses: he's not a strong rebounder or help defender.

These characteristics that distinguish this year's team from last year's have resulted in strikingly different results. Instead of finishing with one of the best records in the league, the Grizzlies have the worst. Hopefully, this will allow the Grizzlies to make the necessary changes in the offseason that will make next year's team look strikingly different from this year's.

Last Year's Team Was Different

Just one year has resulted in significant changes in the performance of the Grizzlies. The record of this year's Grizzlies team is remarkably different from last year's team. With a high probability of a high draft pick in a deep draft, trade demands from the franchise player, a new coach, and possible changes in the front office, next year holds the potential for another big change.

In this article, the first of three, I'll remember last season, in hopes that it will shed some light on the huge difference in the results the Grizzlies have produced.

Here are some of the characteristics that distinguish last year's team from this year's. What's interesting is that they aren't dramatic.

1. Last year's team had three veterans that made significant contributions.

Shane Battier
Bobby Jackson
Lorenzen Wright

None of these veterans were flashy. Two of them were past their primes. None of them made statistical contributions that stand out among the 5th, 6th, or 7th men of the league. However, each of them provides intangibles that aren't quantifiable and contributed significantly, though not exclusively, to the difference between last year's playoff team and this year's league-worst squad.

2. Only one coach led the team. Mike Fratello conducted his first training camp. In the previous season he'd inherited a team from Hubie Brown. Last year's team benefited from consistency throughout the year from one coach.

3. The Grizzlies had their first All Star. Previously Shareef Abdur-Rahim put up All Star numbers. However, coaches and fans consider team performance when they select All Stars, and none of Abdur-Rahim's teams won more than 23 games. Pau Gasol was the best player on a Grizzlies team destined for its third straight appearance, and improved upon numbers that in the previous two seasons were borderline All Star numbers.

These characteristics don't seem like the missing pieces that would turn the worst team in the league into a playoff team, and they aren't the only variables that affected the Grizzlies' decline. However, they had a significant impact on the Grizzlies' appearance in the 2006 playoffs.

'Rookie' Mistakes Doom Grizzlies

Living in the Bay Area, I don't get to see many Grizzlies games live. So far this season, the only Grizzlies game I've attended was Fratello's last, a disappointing loss to the Bucks during the holidays.

This game was also disappointing, but in a different way. Whereas during the Bucks game, the Grizzlies looked like they didn't give a rat's ass about winning basketball games, during this overtime loss, with the exception of Mike Miller, they looked like they were too inexperienced to pull out a victory. (Okay, Swift still looked like he didn't care.)

Rudy Gay had six turnovers and missed a fast break three pointer that he should have taken to the basket. However, I liked his aggressive play, and I don't fault him for missing the 3. At this point in the season, it's better for Rudy learn on the floor than disappear from games as he was apt to do earlier in the season.

Kinsey looked like a 12th man and Junior Harrington looked like somebody brought up from the D-League on a 10 game contract. I have no idea why Chucky Atkins and Dantay Jones didn't play instead of these two inexperienced guards. They could have contributed solid minutes, and the Commercial Appeal and CNNSI don't offer an explanation of their absence.

Atkins could have spelled Stoudemire as well. Damon looked terrible. He only turned the ball over 3 times according to the box score, but it seemed like more than that, probably because of his 5-13 shooting.

Finally, Pau Gasol was the biggest disappointment. He had 6 turnovers, as many as the rookie Gay. Most turnovers occurred when Gasol pulled the ball across the lane where three Warriors were swiping at it. After five years, you'd think Gasol would've learned to take care of the ball in the post. Even worse, Gasol missed two free throws that would've tied the game (after Warrick made two in virtually the same situation).

If Gasol was auditioning for another team before, he certainly isn't now. Isn't he the franchise player who demanded to be traded because the Grizzlies haven't put him in a situation to win games? He couldn't have asked for a better position: down by two with the opportunity to tie the game. Instead, he provided evidence that he's not the clutch, franchise player that deserves a maximum contract.

On a brighter note, (and there were other bright notes: Rudy Gay's aggressiveness and Hakim Warrick's consistency) Mike Miller was unconscious. The Warriors fans around me were disgusted whenever he was left open, and he made them pay. He has been a consistent and effective offensive weapon the entire season, and he would be extremely valuable on a winning team. The last of the Grizzlies' 'rookie' mistakes was not finding him in the last possessions of the game. You could see recognition of that mistake all over Miller's face.

The highlight of the game for me was the Warriors fan who found my friend, Evan and I in the upper bowl. He had to leave to catch a flight so he gave us his tickets on the 14th row at halftime. Thanks to that guy, and thanks to him for not noticing my Gasol jersey.

ByeBye Tsakalidis

The Grizzlies traded Jake Tsakalidis for Scott Padgett.

Besides a brief stint at the end of last season where Tsakalidis strung together several double-double performances, Jake has been a disappointment. He was supposed to be the big body that would provide rebounding, defensive, and muscle next to Gasol. His biggest contribution this season is that his 3 million dollar contract expires this season.

Padgett won't make much of a contribution either. He's a poor man's Brian Cardinal. My friend, Curt's reaction highlights the impact Padgett will make. When Curt learned that Padgett was becoming a Grizzly, he was excited...until my friend Jordan pointed out that Scott Padgett and Scott Pollard aren't the same player.

I can only hope Padgett's contract also comes off the books this year...

Swift and Jones for Magloire?

The Commercial Appeal is reporting that the Grizzlies may trade Swift and Jones to Portland for Jamaal Magloire's expiring contract.

It's tough to get excited about a trade that's primary benefit for the Grizzlies is long-term financial flexibility. Though Swift hasn't lived up to expectations, he's a solid veteran who can provide quality minutes off the bench. Magloire is similar, but it's hard to imagine he'd be a Grizzly after the season, if that long. Losing Swift would be similar to losing Bobby Jackson and Lorenzen Wright, veteran roles players who know how to help their team win.

Trading for Magloire gives the Grizzlies about six million more this summer than they'd have if they kept Swift. (Dantay Jones' contract expires this season like Magloire's.) This extra cash, along with the cash from Eddie Jones' and Jake Tsakaleidis' contracts could potentially help the Grizzlies lure a star player. However, as I've written before, there aren't any big name free agents worth pursuing this summer.

A few names that aren't that list (Vince Carter for example) may become available if they opt out of their contracts, but it's hard to imagine a player like Carter would opt out of his contract to come to Memphis and play with a bunch of rookies and sophomores. Trading Swift is part of a strategy that sets the Grizzlies a few years away from playoff contention.

Swift is certainly replaceable, but the only 'big' players the Grizz will have signed through 08 are Gasol, Johnson, Warrick, and Cardinal. (Hopefully they can re-sign Lawrence Roberts.) They'll have to get additional big men somehow, and talented big men are rare and aren't cheap.

This trade puts additional pressure on the Grizz to get the #1 pick, and select Greg Oden.

Another downside of this trade is that the Grizzlies lose Dantay Jones, who's shaping up to be a nice player, if not a starter. That said, Jones may be on his way out regardless. He's an unrestricted free agent, and the Grizzlies would be smart to take advantage of his value if they don't plan on/can't re-sign him. In fact, if he isn't traded with Swift, Jones could be a sweetener in the Gasol trade. After all, the Bulls will need a shooting guard to replace Ben Gordon.