Wednesday, February 10, 2010

The Griz Need Help

Regardless of the outcome of this season, the Grizzlies have developed a style of play with which they can win basketball games. That style is characterized by rebounding, toughness, and inside scoring.

The benefit of having established a style of play is that if you're savvy and you have resources, you can start acquiring players that fit that style. Houston has found success using MBAs to determine who fits their style based on analysis of player stats. Charlotte has found similar success by sheer luck.

The Griz of course have neither the resources to hire MBAs nor luck. This is the team that only has one 'stats geek', they hired him this year, and he's part time. Not to mention they fired all their scouts. Luckily, the Grizzlies have fan bloggers like me to make armchair recommendations:

Who am I to question the judgement of the folks who drafted Hasheem Thabeet when he was a consensus bust BEFORE they drafted him?

1. Don't prioritize re-signing Rudy Gay over all else.

Rudy is by far the most athletic Grizzly, but of the 4 good players, he's the worst fit. The Grizzlies are an inside outside team built on rebounding, scrappy defense, without the benefit of a play-making guard.

Rudy Gay's weakness are scrappy defense, rebound, and ball-handling. The Grizzlies need a spot up shooter at the 3 position who can stay in front of his man. Gasol and Randolph aren't good enough shot blockers / help defenders to compensate for Rudy's defense (though Gasol has shown flashes).

Can the Grizzlies be successful with Rudy Gay? They've demonstrated they can.

Is he their most tradeable asset? Yes, he's the one Grizzly who would likely benefit from a different system. He's the most conventionally talented player on the team, and he's likely to be overpaid this summer.

The elephant in the room for the Grizzlies is that they won't be able to keep all four of the starters due to salary constraints in the long run, and moving Rudy now makes more sense than moving anyone else.

Yes, I said all four starters on purpose.

Rudy Gay, The Knicks' 2011 All Star

2. Take advantage of all the teams that are selling.

It's absolutely ridiculous that the Grizzlies won't accept a contract that goes beyond 2010. They aren't going to acquire a big name free agent. Even the second and third tier free agents will be off the market when New York and New Jersey realize they have nothing left to do but throw max contracts at mediocre players.

The one strategy that can work for the Grizzlies is acquiring players that teams, who are cutting salary, will trade for less than equal value. Remember Zach Randolph? Do that again. Package Mike Conley, Steven Hunter, and even Hasheem Thabeet for a good player on a bad team with long contract.

Did you know that Mike Conley and Steven Hunter for Jose Calderon works? If the Raptors made that deal, they wouldn't be stuck with Jose Calderon when Chris Bosh abandons them. Of course, they won't take that deal because they don't want Chris Bosh to know that they know he's booking it. Does that make sense? I'm not sure.

Did you know that Monta Ellis for Conley, Hunter, and Marcus Williams works? Even though John Hollinger recently called Ellis the most overrated player in the league, I don't care. I'll trade the most accurately rated crap player for the most overrated good player any day.

Now, I'm going to conclude this blog post before I recommend trading for Gilbert Arenas again.


Geoffrey Vitt said...

Gilbert! Bring him to the Grizz. Great fit for ZBo

John said...

So you think Monta Ellis fits in with our inside scoring/rebounding/play making mentality? It seems every stat line of his I see he has 8 TOs and 75 shot attempts with only halfway decent scoring numbers. If anything go after Magette if you are looking at the warriors. Shouldn't we look for (as you pointed out) a spot up 3 who can stay in front of his man to replace Rudy when we let him walk and try to get a decent pg prospect who may just be lacking minutes? Like that guy for the mavs with the crazy name who I think I read Cuban called untouchable who plays point and like a Josh Howard (though he isn't shooting to well this year)? hmm, I'll think about this some more and check back, but you really need to get over your Ellis mancrush.

David Jones said...

Yes, I think Monta fits. He gets to the rim, makes plays, and he can handle the ball. Only prob is he's not a spot up shooter.

The problem with letting Rudy walk is #1 he's are best asset to trade and #2 no one will sign with Memphis unless it's their last option.

I think package Rudy for several assets, including a defensive minded 3 who can shoot and / or package a bunch of our short / expiring contracts / picks for a good player with a longer contract.

John said...

well then why wasn't he in any of your trade scenarios? hmmmmm?

Sam said...

It's time for the launch of:

David Jones said...

Is this better?

Sam said...

Well, if you want to be silly: