Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Winning the Lottery

So much of the Grizzlies' fortunes depend on their ping pong ball being drawn on May 22. Only fans' good luck charms can help the Grizzlies' in their goal.

Greg Oden and Kevin Durant have the potential to make the impact that Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, and and Dwayne Wade have made on their teams. The Grizzlies would instantly change from the worst team in the league to a top ten team. They already have a solid base of players. With a superstar, they could contend with the best if not compete for a championship.

However, chances are better than 50% that the Grizzlies won't get either player. They only have a 46.5% chance of getting either the first or second pick. In fact, few teams with the worst record in the league have actually ever received the number one pick.

So what should the Grizzlies do if they don't get the pick?

They are almost certain of another lottery pick next year if they don't get a top pick. Therefore, they should trade Gasol. His trade value is peaking, and he can't lead them to further than the first round without significant help. The Grizzlies should trade him for young talent with potential and draft picks. That will give them a chance to get a superstar in another draft lottery. Additionally, it will free up cap space to sign a legitimate superstar. Perhaps the Bulls will be ready to gamble on Gasol once the Pistons sweep them out of the playoffs.

Unfortunately, even if they free the cap space, convincing a Lebron-James-caliber-player to sign with Memphis may be less likely than the winning the NBA draft lottery...

7 comments:

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the butler said...

At first I didn't want to see Gasol traded, but now I think I agree with you. He's a great player, but you're right...he can't lead us anywhere by himself.

So if we get the #3, who do you think we should take? I like Brandan Wright a little more than Horford.

Dave said...

even with Durant or Oden, top 10 team my ass... besides I don't think Oden will make as large of an instant impact as Durant (though he is the better player in the long run)

David Jones said...

Elen, I think you're right on the money. I'd be a great fit for your program. Call me.

Butler, I agree that Gasol is great, but if we have to wait another year, we may as well. If we can get a good enough deal, we should go for it. Maintaining the status quo is not acceptable, and he's the biggest asset we have.

Dave, a top ten team isn't as good as it seems. Toronto and Denver were top ten teams last year. We were better than them the year before with Battier and Bobby Jackson, and we can get back there with Oden or Durant.

David Jones said...

Also Butler, I have no idea who we should take with the third pick. I don't follow the college game closely enough. Perhaps we should consider trading that pick as well if we can get a good enough deal...

the butler said...

Yeah, 'twill be a tough call. I think Wright will be solid. No telling how many ppg he would have scored as the #1 option somewhere.

Not that I would pick him over Durant by any stretch of the imagination, but the stats are interesting - for the '06-'07 NCAA season:

Wright - 14.7ppg while averaging 9.5 shots/game on 65% shooting.
(27.4 minutes/game)

Durant - 25.8ppg while averaging 18.5 shots/game on 47% shooting.
(36 minutes/game)

Obviously Durant has much more range and ability to create his own shot, but I guess the point is we don't really know just how good Brandan Wright will be once given the opportunity. I say it's a no-brainer taking Wright if we land at #3 over anyone else.

Holly said...

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Ok enough of that. First yes with Oden we are immediately a top ten team, Durnat maybe not next year but the year after (he is so rail thin he makes T. Prince look overweight). Secondly I agree that it is time to trade gasol if we don't get a top two pick. Like the bulls had to do with Curry and Chandler at some point you need to give up on your "franchise players" and move on. As far as who to draft, I would tend to lean towards brewer or maybe conley before wright.